A look at interest rates and small caps

[In the investment world, a fact – in and of itself – has little relevance without context and historical reference. When placed in time and amongst shifting trends, valuable insights can be gained above the nominal perception. An investment manager’s perspective, and how they think about and process the facts that everyone can see, can become their competitive differentiator and an alpha generator.

This came to mind in a recent discussion with Kevin Rendino and Daniel Wolfe, Portfolio Managers at 180 Degree Capital Corp – a microcap investment firm utilizing a “constructive activism” investment approach and manager of a publicly traded closed-end fund (TURN). We were reviewing their recent market research paper Normalized Rate Environments and Small Caps.

In their white paper, they argue with charts and history that 5% Fed funds rates are not the cataclysmic event that some analysts and economists are suggesting. In fact, the way they see it using a longer-term lens, these rate levels are normal and conducive to a continued period of strong economic growth, along with strong returns for small and microcap companies. I asked them questions to further discuss and explore how the firm developed their perspective, market outlook, and what the implications are for investors.]

Tooth: How did you come to this standpoint? What faculties of thought or components of economics and markets did you reply to?

Rendina: We have now been responding to the just about steady drumbeat that larger rates of interest will ship the economic system into recession. The collective knowledge of Wall Road, economists and monetary fortune tellers round us has targeted on the query how may the economic system develop after the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds price to a deliberate 5.25-5.50% versus near-zero charges simply 18 months in the past? At this price vary, recession has turn out to be the consensus consequence, and most of those folks have solely determined to learn the way painful and lengthy it is going to be. It solely bought us considering, let’s have a look at if the historic information helps this conclusion.

As skilled cash managers who’ve invested over many market cycles, and we research market historical past, it grew to become clear to us that this query ignores the greater than 60-year historical past of Fed charges at 5% or larger. Whereas many on Wall Road started their careers after 2008 and thus have by no means skilled an rate of interest market apart from zero or close to zero, my tenure predates that point considerably, making I’m personally acquainted with the markets in a better price setting. After all, we knew that larger charges have been and can proceed to sluggish the components of the economic system which might be extra delicate to rates of interest, particularly given the velocity at which the Fed has been growing charges. Nonetheless, we didn’t consider that charges at these ranges would consequence in the long run of the US economic system, a catastrophic collapse of any main financial indicators, or the destruction of the small and micro-cap corporations during which we make investments.

Tooth: What course of did you observe to analysis and decide the validity of your standpoint?

Wolfe: We determined to reply quite a few key questions:

Is the Fed’s 5% price actually a traditionally excessive stage, and if not, how does it examine to historic ranges?

Did the economic system and returns on supposed “dangerous” property ever develop with the Fed price at 5%?

Have small-cap shares fared properly with Fed charges at 5%?

Tooth: What key components of your analysis do you assume most supported your standpoint?

Wolfe: In actuality, the typical Fed price during the last 60 years is 4.9%, when you exclude the interval from 2009 to 2023, when charges have been traditionally low, the typical Fed price is 6.3%. Up to now 60 years, there have been 31 years (or half the time) when the Fed funds price was 4.9% or larger. The economic system grew in 26 of those 31 instances, or 84%. Curiously, in years when the Fed price was above 4.9%, the economic system grew by a median of three.3%. In years when the Fed price was lower than 4.9%, the economic system grew by 2.9%.

Nonetheless, GDP development doesn’t inform the entire story because it consists of all components of the nation. As small-cap worth managers, we’re extra desirous about wanting on the efficiency of small and small-cap public corporations over time relative to Fed charges. Top-of-the-line proxies for this universe of corporations is the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 has declined 14 years out of the final 45. In 8 of these 14 years, the Fed price was under 5%, whereas in 6 years the Fed price was 4.9 % and above. The variety of occasions the Russell 2000 index elevated in every rate of interest setting is roughly equal to fifteen years of will increase when the Fed funds price was above 4.9% and 16 occasions when it was under 4.9%.

As a follow-up to this exploration of small-cap and micro-cap shares, we have put collectively a extra in-depth sequence of charts and information in a report referred to as An image is value 1000 phrases which argues that small and micro-cap markets are extremely undervalued. Not solely does the present Fed price of 5% not imply that this space of ​​the market is desolated, however analysis reveals that this is without doubt one of the finest shopping for alternatives within the small and microcap markets proper now.

If historical past is a information to potential future outcomes, the information offered above helps our view that the present rate of interest of 5.25-5.50% shouldn’t be considered as the tip of the world. Reasonably, it’s a return to extra normalized ranges which have traditionally supported robust financial development and worth creation in small and micro-cap shares.

Tooth: What investor misconceptions or biases have been at play and the way do you suggest addressing them to shoppers?

Rendina: Latest historical past has satisfied buyers that near-zero rates of interest are vital for financial prosperity, particularly for “dangerous” property. Provided that many buyers have recognized nothing however intervals of zero to low rates of interest, it’s troublesome for them to see that there’s financial life exterior of those insurance policies for any however the largest and most well-capitalized corporations.

As well as, one other side that may affect buyers’ view of the market is what cognitive and social scientists name “recentness bias,” which is the thoughts’s pure tendency to overemphasize the significance of latest experiences or latest info in estimates of future occasions.

Solely by analyzing historic information, such because the charts and data talked about above, are you able to eradicate these misconceptions and biases, which could not be farther from the fact-based reality.

Tooth: How can your analysis assist advisors and buyers alter their portfolios in response to this prevailing concern about larger Fed funds charges?

Rendina: We consider that long-term market and financial historical past demonstrates that the present normalized rate of interest setting is unlikely to result in a devastating recession. A return to regular isn’t unhealthy information for the economic system or shares. The resilience of the economic system demonstrated in 2023 is greater than able to persevering with into 2024.

Therein lies what we see as a chance for buyers who, like us, really feel that historical past will repeat itself and result in a protracted interval of robust financial development and vital worth creation on this extra regular setting, notably for small and micro-cap corporations.