Bank OZK: 7.3% Yield Preferred Shares Interesting, CRE Risks Exceeded (OZK)

Introduction

OZK Financial institution (NASDAQ: OZK) has been having a tricky time of late because the market continues to deal with the unfavorable influence of business actual property on the financial institution’s mortgage portfolio, and his colleague Mark Dockray explains how Citigroup (S) torpedoed OZK. Though OZK Financial institution is actually chubby CRE as a part of its total mortgage portfolio, the common LTV ratio on this section stays low. In reality, regardless of the enlargement of the mortgage portfolio within the first quarter, the overall quantity of overdue loans truly decreased. In the meantime, the financial institution is anticipating document income this 12 months, so I am taking a better take a look at most popular inventory in addition to frequent fairness for funding.

Sure, the stability is topic to CRE

Earlier than discussing the financial institution stability sheet, I feel it is vital to take a better take a look at his income profile first. In spite of everything, the upper the yield, the better the potential mortgage loss reserves that the financial institution can put aside to cowl potential losses.

And that is what OZK Financial institution thrives on. As you may see under, the financial institution’s curiosity revenue elevated from lower than $450 million to greater than $637 million within the first quarter of the present fiscal 12 months in comparison with the primary quarter of 2023. And whereas complete curiosity expense additionally rose, web curiosity revenue elevated from just below $345 million to almost $377 million, a rise of $32 million.

One other excellent achievement is OZK’s means to maintain different working prices below management. Non-interest revenue elevated by simply $1.2 million, whereas complete non-interest bills jumped by simply $7 million. This allowed OZK Financial institution to report pretax revenue and mortgage losses of practically $273 million. OZK Financial institution recorded a mortgage loss provision of $43 million and a tax cost of $54.2 million, leading to a web revenue of simply over $175 million.

From this quantity, we nonetheless must deduct $4.05 million in quarterly most popular inventory dividends, leading to 1Q11 web revenue of $171.5 million attributable to Financial institution OZK shareholders. That is $1.51 per share, up 6% from Q1 2023 earnings per share of $1.42. It goes with out saying that dividends on most popular shares are coated very effectively, because the financial institution required lower than 3% of web revenue for 1 quarter. to cowl desire dividends.

Thus, probably the most steadily heard arguments towards investing in Financial institution OZK is its publicity to industrial actual property. You may’t deny or sugar coat; it completely is. Let us take a look at the stability sheet belongings. As you may see under, the financial institution’s stability sheet has grown to simply over $36 billion. Liquidity ranges are wonderful, with about $5.4 billion in money and available-for-sale securities.

Clearly, I am extra within the $27.7 billion mortgage e-book. As proven under, the overwhelming majority of the mortgage portfolio consists of business actual property. Of the $28 billion in loans (excluding reserves), lower than $325 million is assessed as a particular point out or nonperforming mortgage.

Whereas the financial institution has a really excessive degree of publicity to industrial actual property, there are two vital parts that work in OZK’s favor.

Initially, the common LTV ratios are fairly low. The financial institution’s specialised actual property group is a pacesetter in financing development and CRE improvement. The RESG division accounts for a complete of $18 billion of the overall mortgage portfolio, and with a mean loan-to-cost ratio of 52% and a mean LTV ratio of round 43%, OZK’s CRE lending division is actually keeping track of mortgage high quality. Because the financial institution explains, loans on this class are usually the “final {dollars} to finance a undertaking” and the primary {dollars} to be repaid. In the meantime, some loans embody mezzanine debt and most popular fairness, that are junior and senior secured loans offered by the financial institution.

The determine under exhibits the general influence of payouts. As you may see, the financial institution issued practically $1.6 billion in new loans, but additionally obtained $0.79 billion in repayments. This does imply that the CRE mortgage e-book remains to be rising, however at a reasonable tempo, and newer loans will clearly be issued utilizing extra conservative valuation parameters.

In different phrases, practically $9 billion in CRE loans originated because the begin of 2022 are prone to have decrease threat than “older” loans, and $4.8 billion in combination mortgage disbursements because the begin of final 12 months are prone to be linked to loans when the worth of the underlying constructing has already deteriorated.

The picture under additionally offers some readability on the underwriting course of. As you may see, most loans issued within the final three years had LTV ratios within the 40-60% vary. And the most important downside youngster related to workplace CRE additionally has comparatively low LTV ratios (except one workplace mortgage issued in FY2022 with an LTV ratio near 90%).

The comparatively low LTV ratio additionally explains why the financial institution’s mortgage high quality stays excessive. In reality, within the first quarter of this 12 months, web delinquent loans truly declined quarter-on-quarter. As you may see under, just below $51 million in loans had been categorised as “delinquent” for a complete of over $28 billion.

Which means that regardless of a rise within the dimension of the mortgage portfolio by greater than $1.5 billion, the overall quantity of delinquent loans decreased by $4 million.

In the meantime, the financial institution continues to construct its reserves, and over the previous two years it has elevated its complete provision for mortgage losses to $537 million. That is 1.11% of the overall quantity of funded and unfunded credit score obligations and is roughly 10 occasions increased than the overall quantity of overdue loans.

And, in fact, OZK Financial institution will lose all its investments not as a result of the mortgage went unhealthy. If the belongings are decommissioned and offered, the financial institution will at all times have the ability to recoup a good portion of its funding. And that is why the RESG division was singled out within the Q1 earnings report because it “generates glorious returns with below-average threat.”

One other shut take a look at most popular inventory

As defined within the earlier article, Financial institution OZK has one sequence of most popular shares traded with (NASDAQ: OZKAP) as its image. The popular shares supply a most popular dividend yield of 4.625% based mostly on a par worth of $25.

With 14 million most popular shares excellent, Financial institution OZK is required to pay most popular dividends of $16.2 million per 12 months, or $4.05 million per quarter. As defined earlier on this article, a payout ratio is a low single-digit proportion of web revenue. Most popular shares could be redeemed from November 2026.

Final Friday, the popular inventory closed at $15.84, giving it a return of roughly 7.30% based mostly on the present share value.

Funding thesis

OZK Financial institution is forecasting document earnings this 12 months (backed by consensus estimates of $6 or extra per share), rising to over $7 in 2026, however the market is probably going nonetheless reluctant as development will primarily come from the Actual Property Specialties Group, which implies that the overall variety of industrial properties on the stability sheet is prone to improve. I am wonderful with CRE publicity, even when the publicity is a a number of of the overall fairness on the stability sheet, as a result of what issues is how dangerous the loans are. Because the RESG division has strict underwriting standards and an LTV ratio of lower than 50%, OZK Financial institution appears to be on prime. Sure, CRE will likely be painful for some buyers, however it is going to be the mezzanine and fairness tranches that can damage essentially the most. Banks with undertaking LTVs of 40-50% ought to have the ability to deal with the implications.

I’ve a protracted place in Financial institution OZK most popular shares, however I’m additionally warming as much as the frequent shares. The share value has fallen within the latest previous resulting from Citibank’s downgrade, however the financial institution’s earnings profile stays secure and the inventory now trades at lower than 7 occasions earnings. I perceive the market’s concern concerning the CRE portfolio, however so long as threat administration is prioritized over development, I feel the chance/reward ratio is kind of attention-grabbing on the present share value, which is barely above Financial institution OZK’s tangible e-book worth.