United Rentals Stock: Limited Near-Term Growth (NYSE:URI)

Unattached lease’ (NYSE: URI) shares have continued to outperform the broader fairness market over the previous 12 months. The inventory is up a staggering 63% over that interval, greater than double the return of the broader fairness index.

Nearly as good because it sounds to shareholders, the returns achieved this time round are far much less sustainable than in earlier years. Whereas URI stays one of many best-positioned firms within the extremely engaging building tools rental sector, buyers needs to be cautious because the inventory hit all-time highs a number of months in the past.

To start with, the latest returns have largely been pushed by a number of expansions. For instance, the fairness gross sales ratio has hit all-time highs in latest months, and whereas it has cooled barely since March, it’s nonetheless close to file highs.

Extra necessary, nonetheless, is the truth that shares have soared since early November. This coincided with third-quarter outcomes that had been launched in late October, however a extra necessary driver of earnings was the autumn within the time period premium after The US Treasury Division’s November Quarterly Report. The latter had severe implications for the inventory’s progress and pushed valuations to unsustainable ranges.

With all of this in thoughts, shareholders needs to be conscious of URI’s draw back dangers, even when the enterprise continues to do nicely.

Free money move slowdown

It is hardly a secret that United Leases has benefited from various present tendencies. From the robust US economic system (in comparison with different developed markets) and the situation of various strategic industries to elevated infrastructure spending and final however not least consolidation within the tools rental business.

Consequently, URI’s free money move has grown dramatically over the previous decade – growing from $574 million in 2014 to $2,314 million in fiscal 2023. Except fiscal 2020 (when the corporate lower a file quantity of capex to preserve money), free money move progress has additionally been pretty regular over time.

Nevertheless, after various years of robust progress, free money move in 2024 is anticipated to be considerably decrease than in 2023.

This decrease determine additionally displays lately elevated steerage for the total yr, with administration’s high estimate anticipated to be decrease than the 2023 determine.

On the fleet aspect, we elevated our gross and web capex forecasts by $100 million to $3.5 billion to $3.8 billion and $2 billion to $2.3 billion, respectively. And at last we raised our free money move steerage by $50 million to a spread of $2.05 billion to $2.25 billion after elevating funding.

Supply: United Leases Q1 2024 earnings transcript

Annual capital spending can be more likely to be decrease in 2024, as complete spending on rental tools in fiscal 2023 was a file $3.7 billion, above the midrange of present steerage.

Given the speedy progress in measurement of URI in recent times, one would anticipate capital expenditures to extend annually, however that is not the case. Furthermore, the share of rental tools buy prices in annual depreciation deductions will lower for the second yr in a row. The present ratio of 145% is already decrease than the typical of 158% for the interval 2011-2023.

Benefits of consolidation

Whereas URI will proceed to get pleasure from the advantages of its sector-leading place for years to come back, it seems that the market could also be overly optimistic in regards to the firm’s near-term prospects.

As we noticed above, URI is buying and selling close to file highs at a time when its income and free money move progress is probably going slowing.

After a number of years of robust natural progress and various main acquisitions, United Leases has elevated its market share from 12% in 2018 to fifteen% in 2023.

The identical goes for the #2 and #3 gamers in the USA, with the highest three firms now having a mixed market share of 30%, up from simply 23% in 2018. Whereas this may increasingly appear small at first, it’s a vital advance for a extremely fragmented business.

Nevertheless, URI shareholders ought to keep in mind that this speedy enhance in market share for the highest gamers is more likely to result in the next developments within the coming years:

• The massive gamers are more likely to compromise extra on their future acquisitions because the low-hanging fruit is picked.

The most recent acquisition for URI appears to verify this, because the goal firm, Yak Entry, serves an adjoining product section and is a method for United Leases to diversify its operations.

• Additional enlargement of market share via acquisitions can be more and more troublesome with out getting into housing, which is a much less engaging space for bigger gamers like URI.

Based mostly on all of this, the truth that United Leases’ gross margins are already at file lows is a trigger for concern. This means that at its present measurement, administration could also be compelled to broaden into areas of the tools rental market the place it has much less pricing energy.

Traditionally, this has been offset by vital economies of scale, which have decreased fastened prices as a share of gross sales from 15.6% in 2011 to 10.7% in 2023.

Nevertheless, sooner or later, this pattern line is unlikely to proceed to fall at such a tempo. Particularly if the corporate must broaden into adjoining markets the place economies of scale can be harder to understand. Mixed with stress on gross margins, these developments may have unfavorable implications for United Leases’ profitability and valuation multiples.

Takeaway investor

Lately, United Leases’ technique has introduced the inventory nice success for buyers. Extrapolating latest returns into the long run, nonetheless, could possibly be a giant mistake because the inventory trades at file excessive multiples at a time when progress and margins are below stress. United Leases will proceed to get pleasure from the advantages of its business management, however shareholder returns are more likely to cool within the coming years.